The 2025-26 NFL season delivered one of the most unpredictable ATS landscapes in recent memory. While the final playoff picture looked somewhat conventional (the Chiefs and Lions each earned top seeds), the against-the-spread results told a different story entirely.
Here's the complete breakdown of the biggest ATS surprises, busts, and lessons from the 2025-26 NFL season.
The Biggest Overperformers
Jacksonville Jaguars: +5.5 Games Over Win Total
The Jaguars entered the season with a consensus win total of 6.5, and oddsmakers clearly expected a rebuilding year. Instead, Jacksonville finished 12-5 straight up and 11-6 ATS. Trevor Lawrence's return to health, combined with a defense that ranked 7th in DVOA, turned every Jaguars game into a spread-beating machine.
The lesson: When the market writes off a team based on the previous season's injuries, there's value in the bounce-back narrative if the underlying talent is intact.
New England Patriots: +5.5 Games Over Win Total
This was the most shocking overperformance of the season. New England's win total sat at 5.5 heading into September, and the market expected one of the worst teams in football. Instead, Drake Maye's sophomore surge (4,100 passing yards, 28 TDs) and a revamped offensive line turned the Patriots into a competitive team every week.
The ATS record of 12-5 was the best in the NFL. The market adjusted slowly, keeping lines inflated against New England well into November.
Seattle Seahawks: +5.5 Games Over Win Total
Seattle's resurgence caught everyone off guard. A 5.5-game win total overperformance indicates a fundamental market mispricing, and the Seahawks delivered one of the most profitable seasons for bettors in years.
The Biggest Underperformers
Arizona Cardinals: -5.5 Games Under Win Total
Arizona was the mirror image of the overperformers. The market expected roughly 9 wins; the Cardinals delivered 3.5. Injuries decimated the roster, and the offense never found rhythm under a new coordinator. Bettors who faded Arizona after Week 4 printed money.
Dallas Cowboys: -4 Games Under Win Total
Dallas entered the season with sky-high expectations after an aggressive offseason. The market set their win total at 10.5, reflecting playoff expectations. Instead, the Cowboys stumbled to a 6-11 finish, failing to cover in 12 of 17 games.
Las Vegas Raiders: -3.5 Games Under Win Total
The Raiders' season was a lesson in why you shouldn't bet on hope. Despite offseason additions, Las Vegas was fundamentally flawed on both sides of the ball. Their 4-13 ATS record was one of the worst in the league.
Key Trends That Held Up
Home underdogs of 3-7 points: This perennial profitable angle continued to deliver. Home underdogs in this range covered at a 57.2% rate across the season, generating positive ROI of 8.3% on flat betting.
Divisional underdogs in December and January: Teams fighting for playoff positioning in divisional games covered at 55.8% in the final two months of the season. Familiarity and motivation compress margins in these spots.
Teams off a bye: The bye-week advantage held steady at 54.1% ATS. Rest matters, and the market still doesn't fully price in the tactical preparation advantage.
Trends That Broke Down
Thursday Night Football unders: A historically profitable angle (unders on short rest), this trend flipped in 2025-26. Overs went 10-7 on Thursday nights, possibly reflecting the NFL's ongoing effort to schedule more competitive matchups in the slot.
Road favorites of 7+ points: Big road favorites covered only 41% of the time, continuing a multi-year decline. The NFL's parity makes large road spreads increasingly dangerous.
What This Means for 2026-27
The biggest takeaway from 2025-26: market overreactions to the previous season create the largest ATS edges. Teams that disappointed in 2024-25 (like Jacksonville and New England) were undervalued heading into 2025-26, while teams that overperformed (like Arizona) were overvalued.
As you prepare for the 2026-27 NFL season, look for teams where the market narrative diverges from the underlying talent. That's where the money is.